Sitting at SEC Media Days interviewing Florida All-American corner Vernon Hargreaves Josh Ward and I were reminded of a sobering fact about the recent state of Tennessee football. Hargreaves was in the 4th grade the last time the Gators lost to Tennessee. This time next year Hargreaves will be an NFL 1st round pick and his team hasn’t lost to the Vols since he was old enough to cross the street without holding someone’s hand.
Tennessee is also riding an 8-game losing streak to Alabama right now. Meaning incoming freshman Kahlil McKenzie would have just graduated from coach pitch if he were on a little league team the last time the Vols were victorious over the Tide.
This year that changes. That’s right. I said it. Tennessee wil beat both Florida and Alabama in 2015.
Florida has an ugly year in front of it. The Gators are breaking in a new coaching staff, and with that comes new systems and schemes to learn. They have no idea who will start on the offensive line, much less who will start at QB. Making a bowl game would be an impressive accomplishment for Jim McElwain in Gainsville. The Gators return just 4 starters from the 103rd ranked offense in the nation last year.
Defensively the Gators will be at least average. Will Muschamp kept the cupboard stocked with quality defensive players but Muschamp is now in Auburn. Geoff Collins is a fine hire as Defensive Coordinator for the Gators but the defense will likely take at least a small step back as they replace Muschamp who may be the top defensive mind in the sport.
If Tennessee doesn’t beat Florida this year when will they? McElwain have the Gators back on track in little more than a year but this year will be an exercise in patience for the faithful in Gainsville and Tennessee might only need to score 20 points to outpace this year’s Florida offense. Expect the Vols to be double-digit favorites heading into this year’s game in The Swamp.
Beating Alabama has less to do with the current state of the team’s roster and more to do with the placement of the Tennessee game on the schedule. The Tide play at Georgia, Arkansas, and at Texas A&M in the 3 weeks leading up to the annual game against the Vols. Those teams may have the 3 best offensive lines in the nation and Bama could be limping when October 28 comes around and Butch Jones takes his team into Bryant-Denny stadium.
Nick Saban’s team also returns just 2 starters from an offense that struggled at times last year. Four offensive linemen must be replaced and gone is WR Amari Cooper who was the focal point of Lane Kiffin’s attack in Tuscaloosa. The QB situation is also a question mark for Saban and Kiffin. The staff had hoped Florida State transfer Jacob Coker would cement himself as the heir apparent to A.J. McCarron last year but Coker couldn’t beat out converted RB Blake Simms last year and he’s locked in a battle with freshman David Cornwell heading into camp.
That isn’t to say Alabama won’t be an elite team. The Tide will still compete for a college football playoff spot and Nick Saban has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to rebuilding his program. Saban’s kryptonite, though, has been uptempo offenses. He’s struggled with mobile QB’s and is vocal about his disdain for the no-huddle spread because it forces him to stick with a base defense for much of the game. Tennessee hsowed another gear with their tempo in the Tax Slayer Bowl earlier this year. Instead of snapping the ball with 13 or 14 seconds left in the play clock they snapped the ball 13 or 14 seconds into the play clock. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said after the game he’d never seen Tennessee’s offense move so quickly and his team had no answer for the change in tempo.
The Vols should be well rested for the Alabama game as well. While the Tide run through a gauntlet heading into the Tennessee game Butch Jones team have a bye week allowing rest, recovery, and an extra week to gameplan before they head to Tuscaloosa. They’ll have to stay healthy but, barring absolute catastrophe on the injury front the Vols can and will leave the Yellowhammer State with a victory.
Even with those wins I don’t see the Vols winning the SEC East or challenging for the playoff. I like the Vols at 9-3 this year with losses to Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Georgia. Next year will be the year Tennessee fans can expect their team to their traditional place among the nation’s elite. But, this year, the Vols should take an enormous step in that direction that starts with wins against their top two rivals.
