Week 9 NFL picks

Believe me when I say that I changed my mind as I was typing out my score prediction for Washington vs. Dallas last week when I changed my Money Line pick to the Skins. Had I not made that decision, I’d have gone 13-0 straight up last week. I’ve never had an undefeated week. In fact, I think this was the first time I’ve ever gotten only one incorrect. The chances of that happening, I’d say, are pretty slim.


If you remember my column last week, you’ll remember that there were three games I said the line was way too high. The Chargers vs. Patriots, Bears vs. Saints, and Colts vs. Bengals. I ended up putting the three underdogs (Chargers, Bears, Colts) in a parlay bet, which means that all three would have to cover the spread for me to win. The odds were fantastic, +703, which meant that a $100 bet would return $703. I was confident that all three would cover. The Colts and Bears did their job, but the Chargers +7.5 lost by eight points. The difference, if you watched the game, was the punt return that became a safety. Sure, there are plenty of stupid plays every year in the NFL, but this one was pretty boneheaded. Travis Benjamin of the Chargers fielded the ball around the ten yard line on the right hand side of the field. He tried to go across the field, but ended up near the goal line when he was swarmed by Patriots defenders. I’d still make this bet again, as the results pretty clearly bore out my hypothesis that those three lines were too high.


Going into Week 9 is when most people do their Halfway Awards and Power Rankings. I always feel like it’s more logical to do this after week 9, when every team has played at least half of their games. Sure, there are a few teams that haven’t had their byes yet and therefore will have played 9 games, but it makes more sense when most of the league has played 8 and a few have played 9, than when it’s much closer to half having played 7 and half having played 8. So, tune in next week for my Halfway Power Rankings.


With that, on to Week 9!


Denver Broncos (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)

Line: PHI -7.5


Brock Osweiler is back! Oh wait, that doesn’t deserve an exclamation. Unless you’re a Philly fan. Eagles 34 – Broncos 13


Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at New York Giants (1-6)

Line: NYG +3.5


Probably the two biggest surprises of the seasons – the Rams in a good way, the Giants bad. Nonetheless, these two teams are going in opposite directions. The Giants decimated receiving corps is a big issue. Their defense is still strong, but the Rams have many more weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Running back Todd Gurley is again playing like the guy we saw when he was at University of Georgia, and quarterback Jared Goff is mostly playing like a number one overall pick should. Rams 27 – Giants 17


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at New Orleans Saints (5-2)

Line: NO -7


I still don’t completely buy the Saints record. Because of this, I feel like the line is again too high. Tampa is not a very good football team, and New Orleans is certainly better, but my opinion is that New Orleans is playing over their head right now. Tampa is just a mess. They don’t do anything particularly well. New Orleans looks brilliant for drafting Marshon Lattimore, who is playing very well, and solidifying the perennially underachieving Saints’ secondary. Saints 31 – Bucs 27


Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)

Line: JAX -5.5


Andy Dalton versus a good defense? No thanks. As long as Jacksonville plays like it has been on D, this is a no brainer. Even though this was one of the most active trade deadlines ever in the NFL, the Jags didn’t trade for a quarterback, as many posited they might. The two most likely QBs to move, Jimmy Garoppolo and A.J. McCarron, both had deals completed, though McCarron stayed in Cincy after the most Browns thing to ever happen: too busy celebrating the trade, they forgot to call it in to the league office. Did the Jags attempt to acquire either of them? Did they attempt to acquire someone else? We may never know, but for now, they still have Blake Bortles under center. It probably won’t matter this week, but it might be their doom later in the season. Jags 30 – Bengals 19


Atlanta Falcons (4-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-3)

Line: CAR +1.5


Toss a coin. That’s just as easy to predict as which side of these two teams will show up in a given week right now. These are two of the most talented rosters in the NFC, but they are both horrendously inconsistent at the moment. The Panthers trade of Kelvin Benjamin didn’t make a lot of sense, either. It seems like neither of these teams, the NFC’s last two Super Bowl representatives, even want to get back to the big game. So, flip a coin. Panthers 27 – Falcons 24


Indianapolis Colts (2-6) at Houston Texans (3-4)

Line: HOU -7


What a week for Houston sports. They have an all-time game against the Seahawks, and, even though they lost, it was a sign of big things to come. Then, on Wednesday night, the Astros win their first World Series title, 56 years after their inauguration, and finally, the following day, the reason for most of the hope for the Texans, rookie QB Deshaun Watson, blows out his knee in practice and is done for the year. The sports gods giveth, and the sports gods taketh away. Second year wide receiver Will Fuller, in four games with Watson at QB, caught seven touchdown passes. In that same four game stretch, Houston’s star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins caught six. In Watson’s seven games (six starts), he threw a total of 19 TDs. With Tom Savage at the helm early this season, the Texans were listless. Can they feed off of the energy that Watson left them with? The Colts should have beaten the Bengals last week. They also shelved their star quarterback this week, though Andrew Luck had yet to play this season. Jacoby Brissett is still doing an admirable job as the field general for the Colts, but he hasn’t been able to get wide receiver T.Y. Hilton as involved as they need Hilton to be, and their defense just can’t quite cut it. However, against a (potentially) demoralized Texans squad, it may be enough. Colts 19 – Texans 17


Baltimore Ravens (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-3)

Line: TEN -3.5


Baltimore looked phenomenal against the Dolphins last week. Good for them. Welcome back to the real world, Ravens. The Dolphins quit on that game early. Tennessee won’t do the same. Baltimore’s running game is going to have to be at least as good as it was last week for them to contend the rest of this season. The Titans are benefitting from playing in a division where no one is great. They have a chance, coming off of their bye week, to kick it into high gear and take control of the division over the next few weeks. The only question is whether or not they will. Titans 31 – Ravens 14


Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at San Francisco 49ers (0-8)

Line: SF +2.5


The Cardinals join the long list of teams whose backup quarterback has had to start this season. With Carson Palmer out for a few weeks, Drew Stanton takes over. The Niners, most likely still playing C.J. Beathard in the wake of their trade for Jimmy Garoppolo, have shown that they can be competitive, and probably aren’t quite as bad as their record indicates. If Adrian Peterson can get going for the Red Birds, though, expect another long week in San Francisco. At least they have the Warriors to look forward to. Cardinals 23 – Niners 20


Washington Redskins (3-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-2)

Line: SEA -7.5


Washington is decimated by injuries, especially to their offensive line. That does not bode well going into Seattle. The Seahawks, it seems, have learned that they have no running game, and now know that they have to pass to win. Russell Wilson is more than up to the task, and he’s got plenty of targets to throw to. It’s not the same as it has been for the past few years in Seattle. It’s time to replace ground and pound with fun and gun. We’ll see if they continue to adjust. In the meantime, their defense may just swallow Kirk Cousins whole this week. Seahawks 34 – Redskins 20


Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-3)

Line: DAL -2


I’m really not sure why Dallas is favored in this game. Yes, Zeke Elliott will play, and yes, KC’s run defense isn’t that great, but everything else leans towards the Chiefs. Kareem Hunt ought to be able to get back on track against a weak Dallas front seven, and Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill ought to have no problem using their immense talents on the Dallas secondary. Zeke will have to single handedly keep the Cowboys in this one. He might just do it, though. Chiefs 33 – Cowboys 24


Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)

Line: MIA +3


Much like the Falcons-Panthers tilt earlier in the day, it’s kind of difficult to make predictions about these teams. Oakland really should be better than they are, and Miami has played well below their record. If there was ever a time for Derek Carr to take over a football game, this would be it. Raiders 41 – Dolphins 21


Detroit Lions (3-4) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

Line: GB +2.5


With Minnesota on a bye, this game is going to go a long way to determining who the Vikes’ primary threat is. If things can come together for Packers’ QB Brett Hundley, I think that Green Bay is still a playoff team. Detroit is not a bad team either, but has played a tough schedule, including a grueling loss to the Steelers last week. There’s plenty of time left in the season, but for the loser of this game, it may all be for naught. Lions 27 – Packers 23

Last Week ML: 12-1

Season: 76-43

Last Week ATS: 9-4

Season: 63-56

About The Author

Related posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *